Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 64.59%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 16.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.25%) and 3-1 (7.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8%), while for a Toulouse win it was 1-2 (4.62%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.