Birmingham are weaker without manager Mowbray in the dugout, but Blues always make a good fight of it against the division's biggest teams at St Andrew's.
Southampton desperately need a positive result to get back on track for automatic promotion, and we believe that the Saints will narrowly get over the line in the Second City.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 43.53%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.76%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 2-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
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