The visitors arguably boast more quality in their ranks and more experience on the continental stage than their hosts, but with Botev Plovdiv desperate to make the most of home advantage, we would not be surprised to see the teams go into the second leg level.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maribor win with a probability of 52.49%. A win for Botev Plovdiv had a probability of 24.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maribor win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.75%) and 0-2 (8.65%). The likeliest Botev Plovdiv win was 1-0 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
0.02) 
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