Botev Plovdiv have lost just two of their previous eight European away games, and we think that they will produce another strong away performance to hold Maribor to a draw and advance to the next stage of Europa League qualifying.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maribor win with a probability of 61.58%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Botev Plovdiv had a probability of 18.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maribor win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.33%) and 1-0 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.35%), while for a Botev Plovdiv win it was 1-2 (4.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
-0.78) 
0.2) 
