Metz have won on their previous two visits here, scoring six goals in the process, but with Brest's defence currently the toughest to breach in all of France, a repeat scenario looks unlikely.
Going eight games unbeaten at home has seen Brest take 18 points, and against a lowly Metz, an additional three are to be expected, with another clean sheet to boot.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 52.65%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Metz had a probability of 22.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (7.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brest would win this match.
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