Monaco have surprisingly fared better recently on their travels, winning the last three at Nice (3-2), Lens (3-2) and Strasbourg (1-0) compared to picking up a point from six in recent home matches.
The visitors are backed for another road success at Metz's expense, with the home team unlikely to avoid back-to-back losses.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 42.72%. A win for Metz had a probability of 31.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Metz win was 1-0 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
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