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Premier League | Gameweek 38
May 19, 2024 at 4pm UK
Turf Moor
NF

Burnley
1 - 2
Nott'm Forest

Cullen (72')
Esteve (65')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Wood (2', 14')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Spurs 2-1 Burnley
Saturday, May 11 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 2-3 Chelsea
Saturday, May 11 at 5.30pm in Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 37.37% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.1%) and 0-2 (5.54%). The likeliest Burnley win was 2-1 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Nottingham Forest in this match.

Result
BurnleyDrawNottingham Forest
37.37% (-1.188 -1.19) 23.89% (0.466 0.47) 38.74% (0.723 0.72)
Both teams to score 61.89% (-1.805 -1.81)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.68% (-2.33 -2.33)40.32% (2.333 2.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.31% (-2.445 -2.45)62.69% (2.447 2.45)
Burnley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.34% (-1.603 -1.6)21.66% (1.605 1.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.2% (-2.512 -2.51)54.8% (2.515 2.52)
Nottingham Forest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.01% (-0.672 -0.67)20.99% (0.675 0.67)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.24% (-1.062 -1.06)53.76% (1.065 1.07)
Score Analysis
    Burnley 37.37%
    Nottingham Forest 38.74%
    Draw 23.88%
BurnleyDrawNottingham Forest
2-1 @ 8.3% (-0.077 -0.08)
1-0 @ 6.96% (0.408 0.41)
2-0 @ 5.32% (0.06 0.06)
3-1 @ 4.23% (-0.254 -0.25)
3-2 @ 3.31% (-0.271 -0.27)
3-0 @ 2.71% (-0.104 -0.1)
4-1 @ 1.62% (-0.184 -0.18)
4-2 @ 1.26% (-0.172 -0.17)
4-0 @ 1.04% (-0.094 -0.09)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 37.37%
1-1 @ 10.85% (0.42 0.42)
2-2 @ 6.48% (-0.197 -0.2)
0-0 @ 4.55% (0.472 0.47)
3-3 @ 1.72% (-0.18 -0.18)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 23.88%
1-2 @ 8.48% (0.16 0.16)
0-1 @ 7.1% (0.604 0.6)
0-2 @ 5.54% (0.365 0.37)
1-3 @ 4.41% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.37% (-0.175 -0.18)
0-3 @ 2.88% (0.135 0.14)
1-4 @ 1.72% (-0.039 -0.04)
2-4 @ 1.32% (-0.098 -0.1)
0-4 @ 1.13% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 38.74%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Spurs 2-1 Burnley
Saturday, May 11 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Burnley 1-4 Newcastle
Saturday, May 4 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man Utd 1-1 Burnley
Saturday, April 27 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Sheff Utd 1-4 Burnley
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Burnley 1-1 Brighton
Saturday, April 13 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Everton 1-0 Burnley
Saturday, April 6 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 2-3 Chelsea
Saturday, May 11 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Sheff Utd 1-3 Nott'm Forest
Saturday, May 4 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 0-2 Man City
Sunday, April 28 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Everton 2-0 Nott'm Forest
Sunday, April 21 at 1.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 2-2 Wolves
Saturday, April 13 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Spurs 3-1 Nott'm Forest
Sunday, April 7 at 6pm in Premier League


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