SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 40.3%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 36.34% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.66%) and 0-2 (5.5%). The likeliest Burnley win was 2-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Burnley | Draw | Newcastle United |
36.34% ( -0.02) | 23.36% ( -0.07) | 40.3% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 63.82% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.22% ( 0.36) | 37.78% ( -0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.98% ( 0.38) | 60.02% ( -0.38) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.96% ( 0.15) | 21.04% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.16% ( 0.23) | 53.84% ( -0.23) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.83% ( 0.19) | 19.17% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.16% ( 0.32) | 50.84% ( -0.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Burnley | Draw | Newcastle United |
| 2-1 @ 8.09% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 6.29% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 4.9% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 4.21% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.47% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 2.55% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.35% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 2.85% Total : 36.34% | 1-1 @ 10.38% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 6.68% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.35% | 1-2 @ 8.58% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.66% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4.72% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 3.68% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 3.03% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.95% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.52% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.41% Total : 40.3% |
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