Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 37.94%. A win for Cesar Vallejo had a probability of 35.96% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.35%) and 0-2 (6.41%). The likeliest Cesar Vallejo win was 1-0 (9.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente Medellin would win this match.
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