SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 59.65%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 16.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.46%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.09%), while for a Independiente Medellin win it was 0-1 (6.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that San Lorenzo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Independiente Medellin |
59.65% ( -0.05) | 23.96% ( 0.03) | 16.39% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 42.73% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.59% ( -0.05) | 56.41% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.58% ( -0.04) | 77.42% ( 0.04) |
| San Lorenzo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.29% ( -0.04) | 18.72% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.92% ( -0.07) | 50.08% ( 0.07) |
| Independiente Medellin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.57% ( 0.01) | 47.44% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.19% ( 0.01) | 82.81% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Independiente Medellin |
| 1-0 @ 14.87% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 12.46% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.3% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.96% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.19% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.92% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.18% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.94% ( -0)5-0 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 2.85% Total : 59.64% | 1-1 @ 11.09% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.88% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 3.47% Other @ 0.52% Total : 23.96% | 0-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.14% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.47% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.03% ( 0)Other @ 2.13% Total : 16.39% |
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