SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 52.11%. A win for Charlton Athletic had a probability of 25.13% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.61%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Charlton Athletic win was 2-1 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Charlton Athletic | Draw | Derby County |
25.13% ( 0.61) | 22.76% ( 0.13) | 52.11% ( -0.74) |
| Both teams to score 59.34% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.15% ( -0.01) | 40.85% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.76% ( -0.01) | 63.24% ( 0.01) |
| Charlton Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.44% ( 0.48) | 29.56% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.41% ( 0.58) | 65.59% ( -0.58) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.24% ( -0.25) | 15.76% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.12% ( -0.48) | 44.88% ( 0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Charlton Athletic | Draw | Derby County |
| 2-1 @ 6.39% ( 0.12) 1-0 @ 5.68% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 3.46% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 2.6% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.4% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.06)Other @ 3.2% Total : 25.13% | 1-1 @ 10.49% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 4.66% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.76% | 1-2 @ 9.69% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 8.61% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 7.95% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 5.97% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 4.9% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 3.64% ( 0)1-4 @ 2.76% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 2.26% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 1.02% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.63% Total : 52.11% |
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