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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 44.37%. A win for Peterborough United had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.86%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Peterborough United win was 1-2 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Peterborough United |
44.37% ( -0.08) | 23.77% ( -0.01) | 31.85% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 60.89% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.96% ( 0.09) | 41.04% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.57% ( 0.09) | 63.43% ( -0.09) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.22% ( 0) | 18.77% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.82% ( 0) | 50.17% ( 0) |
| Peterborough United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.96% ( 0.1) | 25.03% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.29% ( 0.13) | 59.7% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Peterborough United |
| 2-1 @ 9.11% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.86% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 6.58% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.08% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.67% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.12% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.53% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.47% ( 0)Other @ 3.44% Total : 44.37% | 1-1 @ 10.88% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.31% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.7% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.77% | 1-2 @ 7.54% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.51% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.51% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.62% Total : 31.85% |
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