Africa Cup of Nations | Quarter-Finals

Feb 2, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara (Abidjan)

Congo DR
3 - 1
Guinea

Mbemba (27'), Wissa (65' pen.), Masuaku (82')
Masuaku (37')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Bayo (21' pen.)
Diawara (64'), Diawara (64'), Conte (79')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Congo DR and Guinea, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Congo DR

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations

Last Game: Egypt 1-1 Congo DR (7-8 pen.)
Sunday, January 28 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	4	7
2	Congo DR	3	0	3
3	Zambia	3	-1	2
4	Tanzania	3	-3	2

Guinea

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations

Last Game: Eq Guinea 0-1 Guinea
Sunday, January 28 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	7	9
2	Cameroon	3	-1	4
3	Guinea	3	-1	4
4	Gambia	3	-5	0

We said: Congo DR 1-0 Guinea

Both sides have scored three goals each at the finals, and this last eight tie could be decided by a lone goal, with the DRC eking out a marginal win over Guinea. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Congo DR win with a probability of 51.92%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for Guinea had a probability of 19.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Congo DR win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.77%) and 2-1 (7.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.69%), while for a Guinea win it was 0-1 (9.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Congo DR would win this match.

Result
Congo DR	Draw	Guinea
51.92%	28.83%	19.25%

Both teams to score 35.93%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

32.01%

67.99%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

14.08%

85.92%

Congo DR Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.06%

26.94%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.72%

62.28%

Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.17%

50.83%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.78%

85.22%

Score Analysis

Congo DR 51.91%

Guinea 19.25%

Draw 28.82%

Congo DR	Draw	Guinea
1-0 @ 17.95% 2-0 @ 11.77% 2-1 @ 7.97% 3-0 @ 5.15% 3-1 @ 3.48% 4-0 @ 1.69% 3-2 @ 1.18% 4-1 @ 1.14% Other @ 1.58% Total : 51.91%	0-0 @ 13.69% 1-1 @ 12.15% 2-2 @ 2.7% Other @ 0.28% Total : 28.82%	0-1 @ 9.27% 1-2 @ 4.11% 0-2 @ 3.14% 1-3 @ 0.93% Other @ 1.81% Total : 19.25%