Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 38.96%. A win for Criciuma had a probability of 33.95% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.99%). The likeliest Criciuma win was 1-0 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
0.35) 
-0.34) 
