Last year's runners-up have had a dispiriting season but Gaucho's side have found some form on their turf lately, and that should stand the hosts in good stead this weekend when they host a team that could fall back into old habits after losing to Mineiro last weekend.
The spoils could be shared with neither side taking significant risks.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 53.3%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 21.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.36%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (7.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Gremio in this match.
0.07) 
-0.03) 
