Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 59.34%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 19.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.14%), while for a Universidad Catolica win it was 0-1 (5.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cruzeiro in this match.
-0.38) 
0.11) 
