Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 56.2%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Alianza Petrolera had a probability of 18.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.01%) and 1-2 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for an Alianza Petrolera win it was 1-0 (7.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cruzeiro would win this match.
-0.42) 
0.43) 
