Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 72.18%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Alianza Petrolera had a probability of 9.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.37%) and 3-0 (10.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.52%), while for an Alianza Petrolera win it was 0-1 (4.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
-0.14) 
0.05) 
