SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Denmark | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Slovenia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Serbia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 74.51%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Finland had a probability of 8.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.37%) and 3-0 (10.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.89%), while for a Finland win it was 0-1 (3.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for England in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for England.
| Result | ||
| England | Draw | Finland |
74.51% ( 0.01) | 16.69% ( -0.02) | 8.8% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 42.28% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.66% ( 0.11) | 44.34% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.29% ( 0.11) | 66.71% ( -0.11) |
| England Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.71% ( 0.03) | 10.29% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.31% ( 0.07) | 33.69% ( -0.07) |
| Finland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.13% ( 0.1) | 52.87% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.43% ( 0.06) | 86.57% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| England | Draw | Finland |
| 2-0 @ 14.06% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 12.37% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 10.66% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 8.97% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.8% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 6.06% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.86% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 2.76% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.17% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)6-0 @ 1.05% ( 0)Other @ 2.77% Total : 74.5% | 1-1 @ 7.89% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.44% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 2.86% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.5% Total : 16.69% | 0-1 @ 3.47% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.11% ( 0)Other @ 1.72% Total : 8.8% |
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