SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Austria | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Sweden | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Estonia | 8 | -20 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 66.71%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 12.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.68%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.72%), while for a Estonia win it was 0-1 (5.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Finland would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Finland | Draw | Estonia |
66.71% ( 0.05) | 20.85% ( -0.02) | 12.43% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 42.08% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.03% ( 0.02) | 51.97% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.29% ( 0.02) | 73.71% ( -0.02) |
| Finland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.26% ( 0.02) | 14.74% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.04% ( 0.04) | 42.96% ( -0.04) |
| Estonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.36% ( -0.03) | 50.64% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.9% ( -0.02) | 85.1% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Finland | Draw | Estonia |
| 1-0 @ 14.29% 2-0 @ 13.68% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.31% ( -0)3-0 @ 8.73% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.94% ( 0)4-0 @ 4.18% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.84% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.02% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.6% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.09% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 2.06% Total : 66.71% | 1-1 @ 9.72% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.17% ( -0)Other @ 0.5% Total : 20.85% | 0-1 @ 5.08% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.73% ( -0)Other @ 2.32% Total : 12.44% |
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