SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 38.2%. A win for Finland had a probability of 34.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Finland win was 0-1 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wales | Draw | Finland |
38.2% ( 1.19) | 27.47% ( -0.16) | 34.33% ( -1.03) |
| Both teams to score 49.28% ( 0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.65% ( 0.52) | 56.35% ( -0.51) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.62% ( 0.41) | 77.38% ( -0.41) |
| Wales Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.4% ( 0.96) | 28.6% ( -0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.6% ( 1.18) | 64.4% ( -1.18) |
| Finland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.02% ( -0.4) | 30.98% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.72% ( -0.48) | 67.28% ( 0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wales | Draw | Finland |
| 1-0 @ 11.09% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 8.14% ( 0.18)2-0 @ 6.94% ( 0.23)3-1 @ 3.4% ( 0.16)3-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.08)Other @ 1.78% Total : 38.2% | 1-1 @ 12.99% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.86% ( -0.18)2-2 @ 4.77% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.85% Total : 27.47% | 0-1 @ 10.38% ( -0.32) 1-2 @ 7.62% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.26)1-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 1.86% Other @ 3.04% Total : 34.33% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
