Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 93.79%. A draw had a probability of 4.9% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 1.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 0-3 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-4 (13.7%) and 0-2 (12.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.28%), while for a San Marino win it was 1-0 (0.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Finland would win this match.