SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 63.62%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 12.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 18.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (15.08%) and 1-2 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.65%), while for a Guinea-Bissau win it was 1-0 (6.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Guinea-Bissau | Draw | Mali |
12.16% ( -0.01) | 24.22% ( 0.01) | 63.62% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 33.41% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.37% ( -0.04) | 63.63% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.08% ( -0.02) | 82.92% ( 0.02) |
| Guinea-Bissau Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 41.77% ( -0.03) | 58.23% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 10.28% ( -0.02) | 89.72% ( 0.02) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.99% ( -0.01) | 20.01% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.79% ( -0.02) | 52.21% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guinea-Bissau | Draw | Mali |
| 1-0 @ 6.3% ( 0) 2-1 @ 2.74% ( -0)2-0 @ 1.7% ( -0)Other @ 1.41% Total : 12.16% | 0-0 @ 11.65% ( 0.02) 1-1 @ 10.13% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 2.21% ( -0)Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.21% | 0-1 @ 18.74% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 15.08% ( 0.01)1-2 @ 8.16% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 8.09% 1-3 @ 4.37% ( -0)0-4 @ 3.25% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.76% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.18% ( -0)0-5 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 1.93% Total : 63.61% |
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