SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 36.36%. A win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 35.29% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Guinea-Bissau win was 1-0 (11.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Guinea-Bissau | Draw | Ethiopia |
35.29% ( -1.38) | 28.36% ( 0.61) | 36.36% ( 0.76) |
| Both teams to score 46.72% ( -1.85) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.43% ( -2.28) | 59.57% ( 2.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.09% ( -1.79) | 79.91% ( 1.78) |
| Guinea-Bissau Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.01% ( -2.02) | 31.99% ( 2.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.55% ( -2.36) | 68.45% ( 2.36) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.7% ( -0.67) | 31.3% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.34% ( -0.78) | 67.66% ( 0.78) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guinea-Bissau | Draw | Ethiopia |
| 1-0 @ 11.41% ( 0.35) 2-1 @ 7.56% ( -0.33)2-0 @ 6.5% ( -0.16)3-1 @ 2.87% ( -0.3)3-0 @ 2.47% ( -0.21)3-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.21)Other @ 2.81% Total : 35.28% | 1-1 @ 13.25% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 10.01% ( 0.83)2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.28)Other @ 0.7% Total : 28.35% | 0-1 @ 11.62% ( 0.76) 1-2 @ 7.7% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 6.75% ( 0.33)1-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.14)Other @ 2.98% Total : 36.35% |
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