Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 59.1%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Mozambique had a probability of 16.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.59%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Mozambique win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
0.73) 
-0.45) 
