SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Namibia | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cape Verde | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Mozambique | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 59.1%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Mozambique had a probability of 16.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.59%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Mozambique win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Mali | Draw | Mozambique |
59.1% ( 0.73) | 24.47% ( -0.45) | 16.43% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 41.51% ( 0.64) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.91% ( 1.15) | 58.09% ( -1.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.24% ( 0.9) | 78.76% ( -0.89) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.43% ( 0.73) | 19.57% ( -0.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.51% ( 1.18) | 51.49% ( -1.17) |
| Mozambique Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.61% ( 0.34) | 48.39% ( -0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 16.49% ( 0.24) | 83.51% ( -0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mali | Draw | Mozambique |
| 1-0 @ 15.44% ( -0.32) 2-0 @ 12.59% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 6.85% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 4.97% ( 0.17)4-0 @ 2.79% ( 0.13)4-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 1.81% ( 0.08)5-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.55% Total : 59.08% | 1-1 @ 11.21% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 9.47% ( -0.42)2-2 @ 3.32% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.47% Total : 24.47% | 0-1 @ 6.87% ( -0.24) 1-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.01% Total : 16.43% |
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