SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Tunisia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Mali | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | South Africa | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Namibia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Nigeria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 67.64%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 10.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.39%) and 3-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.5%), while for a Guinea-Bissau win it was 0-1 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mali | Draw | Guinea-Bissau |
67.64% ( 0.02) | 21.61% ( -0.02) | 10.75% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 35.48% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.81% ( 0.06) | 58.19% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.16% ( 0.05) | 78.84% ( -0.05) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.47% ( 0.03) | 16.53% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.72% ( 0.05) | 46.28% ( -0.05) |
| Guinea-Bissau Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 42.5% ( 0.03) | 57.5% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 10.68% ( 0.02) | 89.32% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mali | Draw | Guinea-Bissau |
| 1-0 @ 17.1% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 15.39% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 9.24% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.52% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.11% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 4.16% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.3% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.5% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.42% ( 0)Other @ 2.9% Total : 67.63% | 0-0 @ 9.5% ( -0.02) 1-1 @ 9.47% ( -0)2-2 @ 2.36% ( 0)Other @ 0.28% Total : 21.61% | 0-1 @ 5.26% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 2.62% ( 0)0-2 @ 1.46% ( -0)Other @ 1.41% Total : 10.75% |
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