Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 47.48%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 29.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.19%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 2-1 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 3-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
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