CONCACAF Champions League | First Round | 1st Leg
Feb 7, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto
Coverage of the CONCACAF Champions League First Round clash between Herediano and Toluca.
Form, Standings, Stats
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 39.78%. A win for Herediano had a probability of 36.54% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.98%) and 0-2 (5.6%). The likeliest Herediano win was 2-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Toluca in this match.
| Result |
| Herediano | Draw | Toluca |
36.54% ( -0.37) | 23.68% ( 0.02) | 39.78% ( 0.35) |
| Both teams to score 62.62% ( -0.1) |
| 60.65% ( -0.12) | 39.35% ( 0.12) |
| 38.31% ( -0.13) | 61.68% ( 0.13) |
| 78.35% ( -0.24) | 21.65% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.23% ( -0.37) | 54.77% ( 0.37) |
| 79.92% ( 0.11) | 20.08% ( -0.11) |
