Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 50.18%. A win for Club Leon had a probability of 26.94% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.12%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Club Leon win was 1-2 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.43%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
0.3) 
-0.07) 
