SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 50.18%. A win for Club Leon had a probability of 26.94% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.12%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Club Leon win was 1-2 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.43%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toluca | Draw | Club Leon |
50.18% ( 0.3) | 22.88% ( -0.07) | 26.94% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 60.74% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.21% ( 0.14) | 39.79% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.86% ( 0.15) | 62.14% ( -0.14) |
| Toluca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.95% ( 0.16) | 16.05% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.58% ( 0.29) | 45.42% ( -0.28) |
| Club Leon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.36% ( -0.09) | 27.64% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.81% ( -0.11) | 63.18% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toluca | Draw | Club Leon |
| 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.12% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.66% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.07% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.71% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.59% Total : 50.18% | 1-1 @ 10.43% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.14% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.44% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.6% ( 0)Other @ 0.26% Total : 22.87% | 1-2 @ 6.71% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 5.71% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.67% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.86% Total : 26.94% |
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