SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 53.66%. A win for Manchester City Under-21s had a probability of 23.88% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.74%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Manchester City Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lincoln City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lincoln City | Draw | Manchester City Under-21s |
53.66% ( 0.05) | 22.47% ( -0.02) | 23.88% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 58.92% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.24% ( 0.09) | 40.76% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.85% ( 0.09) | 63.15% ( -0.08) |
| Lincoln City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.8% ( 0.05) | 15.2% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.16% ( 0.09) | 43.84% ( -0.08) |
| Manchester City Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.48% ( 0.03) | 30.52% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.26% ( 0.04) | 66.75% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lincoln City | Draw | Manchester City Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 9.77% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.74% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 8.23% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 6.13% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.17% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.64% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.89% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.43% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.71% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.09% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 2.93% Total : 53.66% | 1-1 @ 10.37% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.8% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.64% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.44% ( 0)Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.47% | 1-2 @ 6.16% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.51% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.44% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.29% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0)Other @ 2.92% Total : 23.88% |
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