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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 52.85%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 24.47% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.76%) and 0-2 (8.14%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 2-1 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Crawley Town | Draw | Lincoln City |
24.47% ( 1.99) | 22.68% ( 1) | 52.85% ( -2.98) |
| Both teams to score 58.89% ( -0.99) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.89% ( -2.44) | 41.11% ( 2.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.49% ( -2.53) | 63.51% ( 2.53) |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.77% ( 0.32) | 30.23% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.6% ( 0.38) | 66.4% ( -0.37) |
| Lincoln City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.4% ( -1.81) | 15.6% ( 1.81) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.42% ( -3.47) | 44.58% ( 3.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crawley Town | Draw | Lincoln City |
| 2-1 @ 6.27% ( 0.4) 1-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.65)2-0 @ 3.37% ( 0.41)3-1 @ 2.5% ( 0.18)3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.35% ( 0.18)Other @ 3.02% Total : 24.47% | 1-1 @ 10.48% ( 0.59) 2-2 @ 5.82% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.72% ( 0.51)3-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.68% | 1-2 @ 9.74% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 8.76% ( 0.42)0-2 @ 8.14% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 6.03% ( -0.45)0-3 @ 5.04% ( -0.42)2-3 @ 3.61% ( -0.23)1-4 @ 2.8% ( -0.41)0-4 @ 2.34% ( -0.36)2-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.23)1-5 @ 1.04% ( -0.23)Other @ 3.68% Total : 52.85% |
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