SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 57.93%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Chesham United had a probability of 18.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.87%) and 1-2 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Chesham United win it was 1-0 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lincoln City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chesham United | Draw | Lincoln City |
18.84% ( 0.22) | 23.23% ( 0.25) | 57.93% ( -0.47) |
| Both teams to score 49.1% ( -0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.75% ( -0.69) | 50.25% ( 0.69) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.8% ( -0.61) | 72.2% ( 0.61) |
| Chesham United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.21% ( -0.15) | 40.79% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.63% ( -0.14) | 77.37% ( 0.14) |
| Lincoln City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.92% ( -0.41) | 17.08% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.73% ( -0.73) | 47.27% ( 0.73) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chesham United | Draw | Lincoln City |
| 1-0 @ 6.25% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 4.95% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 2.8% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 1.48% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.05% Total : 18.84% | 1-1 @ 11.04% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 6.97% ( 0.19)2-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.85% Total : 23.23% | 0-1 @ 12.31% ( 0.18) 0-2 @ 10.87% 1-2 @ 9.76% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 6.41% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 5.75% ( -0.1)0-4 @ 2.83% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 2.54% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.04)0-5 @ 1% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.74% Total : 57.92% |
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