Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 43.28%. A win for Mantova had a probability of 29.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (8.22%). The likeliest Mantova win was 1-0 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
-0.28) 
0.18) 
