Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mantova win with a probability of 46.06%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 27.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mantova win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Brescia win was 0-1 (8.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
0.19) 
-0.1) 
