Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 49.21%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Bari had a probability of 24.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.33%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%), while for a Bari win it was 0-1 (8.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
-0.4) 
0.5) 
