SM
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 2 | Serbia | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 42.46%. A win for Montenegro had a probability of 28.82% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.45%) and 1-2 (8.18%). The likeliest Montenegro win was 1-0 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Montenegro would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montenegro | Draw | Bulgaria |
28.82% ( 0.02) | 28.72% ( 0.02) | 42.46% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 44.05% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.93% ( -0.07) | 62.07% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.21% ( -0.05) | 81.79% ( 0.05) |
| Montenegro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62% ( -0.03) | 38% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.23% ( -0.03) | 74.77% ( 0.03) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.06% ( -0.06) | 28.94% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.17% ( -0.07) | 64.83% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montenegro | Draw | Bulgaria |
| 1-0 @ 10.64% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 6.38% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.06% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.66% 3-2 @ 1.28% ( -0)Other @ 1.65% Total : 28.82% | 1-1 @ 13.19% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.99% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.57% Total : 28.71% | 0-1 @ 13.63% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 8.45% ( -0)1-2 @ 8.18% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.49% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.38% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.08% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 1.55% Total : 42.45% |
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