Both sides will enter this match in relatively good form, and we are expecting a close match on Sunday afternoon. There is a lot more experience in the Luxembourg squad, but Bulgaria also have plenty of quality, so we have had to settle on a low-scoring draw in this contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luxembourg win with a probability of 37.55%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luxembourg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.02%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 0-1 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
0.33) 
-0.38) 
