Although the risk of exiting to lower-league opponents again will put pressure on Monza, they have an experienced squad that should see off Sudtirol and progress to the second round.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 58.9%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Sudtirol had a probability of 18.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.55%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.66%), while for a Sudtirol win it was 0-1 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
-0.1) 
0.03) 
