Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 69.31%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Vis Pesaro had a probability of 11.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.9%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.94%), while for a Vis Pesaro win it was 0-1 (4.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monza would win this match.
-0.14) 
0.04) 
