Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 52.88%. A win for Hungary had a probability of 23.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.76%) and 2-0 (8.94%). The likeliest Hungary win was 0-1 (6.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Netherlands would win this match.