SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Austria | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | France | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Poland | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 66.99%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 13.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.38%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.47%), while for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win it was 0-1 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Netherlands would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Netherlands | Draw | Bosnia-Herzegovina |
66.99% ( 0.2) | 19.95% ( -0.13) | 13.06% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 46.46% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.01% ( 0.38) | 46.99% ( -0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.77% ( 0.36) | 69.23% ( -0.35) |
| Netherlands Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.91% ( 0.18) | 13.09% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.29% ( 0.36) | 39.71% ( -0.36) |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.46% ( 0.13) | 46.54% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.86% ( 0.1) | 82.14% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Netherlands | Draw | Bosnia-Herzegovina |
| 2-0 @ 12.59% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 12.38% ( -0.12)2-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 8.54% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.53% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 4.34% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.32% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.76% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.35% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.27% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.78% Total : 66.98% | 1-1 @ 9.47% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 6.09% ( -0.1)2-2 @ 3.68% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.7% Total : 19.95% | 0-1 @ 4.66% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 1.13% Total : 13.06% |
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