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Nations League | League A
Sep 7, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Merkur Spiel-Arena
HN

Germany
5 - 0
Hungary

Fullkrug (27'), Musiala (58'), Wirtz (66'), Pavlovic (77'), Havertz (81' pen.)
FT(HT: 1-0)

Nego (9')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Last Game: Spain 2-1 Germany
Friday, July 5 at 5pm in European Championship
All competitions
Last Game: Scotland 0-1 Hungary
Sunday, June 23 at 8pm in European Championship

We said: Germany 2-1 Hungary

Germany are yet to win the Nations League - or even progress beyond the group phase - in three previous attempts, but they should be among the favourites to prevail next June. With an abundance of attacking talent available, Julian Nagelsmann's men are set to beat a stubborn Hungary side again on Saturday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 56.53%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Hungary had a probability of 20.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.82%), while for a Hungary win it was 0-1 (5.93%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Germany would win this match.

Result
GermanyDrawHungary
56.53% (-0.27 -0.27) 22.83% (0.068999999999999 0.07) 20.65% (0.204 0.2)
Both teams to score 53.28% (0.087999999999994 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.86% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)46.15% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.56% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)68.45% (0.036999999999992 0.04)
Germany Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.89% (-0.105 -0.11)16.12% (0.108 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.47% (-0.193 -0.19)45.53% (0.195 0.2)
Hungary Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.52% (0.184 0.18)36.48% (-0.182 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.73% (0.184 0.18)73.27% (-0.184 -0.18)
Score Analysis
    Germany 56.53%
    Hungary 20.65%
    Draw 22.82%
GermanyDrawHungary
1-0 @ 10.73% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.88% (-0.0059999999999985 -0.01)
2-0 @ 9.8% (-0.056000000000001 -0.06)
3-1 @ 6.01% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-0 @ 5.96% (-0.055 -0.05)
3-2 @ 3.03% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-1 @ 2.74% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-0 @ 2.72% (-0.035 -0.03)
4-2 @ 1.38% (-0.004 -0)
5-1 @ 1% (-0.012 -0.01)
5-0 @ 0.99% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 56.53%
1-1 @ 10.82% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
0-0 @ 5.88% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.98% (0.021 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.02% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 22.82%
0-1 @ 5.93% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
1-2 @ 5.46% (0.043 0.04)
0-2 @ 2.99% (0.034 0.03)
1-3 @ 1.83% (0.024 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.67% (0.016 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.01% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 1.76%
Total : 20.65%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Spain 2-1 Germany
Friday, July 5 at 5pm in European Championship
Last Game: Germany 2-0 Denmark
Saturday, June 29 at 8pm in European Championship
Last Game: Switzerland 1-1 Germany
Sunday, June 23 at 8pm in European Championship
Last Game: Germany 2-0 Hungary
Wednesday, June 19 at 5pm in European Championship
Last Game: Germany 5-1 Scotland
Friday, June 14 at 8pm in European Championship
Last Game: Germany 2-1 Greece
Friday, June 7 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Scotland 0-1 Hungary
Sunday, June 23 at 8pm in European Championship
Last Game: Germany 2-0 Hungary
Wednesday, June 19 at 5pm in European Championship
Last Game: Hungary 1-3 Switzerland
Saturday, June 15 at 2pm in European Championship
Last Game: Hungary 3-0 Israel
Saturday, June 8 at 5pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Rep. Ireland 2-1 Hungary
Tuesday, June 4 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Hungary 2-0 Kosovo
Tuesday, March 26 at 6pm in International Friendlies


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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