Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 40.17%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 33.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 0-1 (9.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pisa would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
