Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 48.75%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Sudtirol had a probability of 25.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.25%) and 0-2 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.28%), while for a Sudtirol win it was 1-0 (8.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Sassuolo in this match.
0.18) 
-0.07) 
