SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 54.93%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.63%) and 2-0 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.62%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 1-2 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portsmouth would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portsmouth | Draw | Northampton Town |
54.93% ( -0.78) | 22.66% ( -0.08) | 22.4% ( 0.86) |
| Both teams to score 56.36% ( 1.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.72% ( 1.39) | 43.27% ( -1.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.33% ( 1.36) | 65.67% ( -1.36) |
| Portsmouth Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.35% ( 0.22) | 15.65% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.32% ( 0.41) | 44.68% ( -0.42) |
| Northampton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.82% ( 1.58) | 33.18% ( -1.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.21% ( 1.71) | 69.79% ( -1.71) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portsmouth | Draw | Northampton Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.85% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 9.63% ( -0.52)2-0 @ 8.93% ( -0.42)3-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.52% ( -0.21)3-2 @ 3.36% ( 0.16)4-1 @ 2.82% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 2.56% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.09)5-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.61% Total : 54.93% | 1-1 @ 10.62% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.22)0-0 @ 5.19% ( -0.33)3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.17% Total : 22.66% | 1-2 @ 5.86% ( 0.19) 0-1 @ 5.73% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.16)2-3 @ 2% ( 0.16)0-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.34% Total : 22.4% |
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