Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Oviedo win with a probability of 44.81%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Elche had a probability of 25.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Oviedo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.4%) and 2-1 (8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.07%), while for a Elche win it was 0-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Oviedo would win this match.
0.01) 
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