Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 45.63%. A win for England had a probability of 28.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest England win was 0-1 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Spain in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Spain.
