Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 45.44%. A win for Italy had a probability of 29.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Italy win was 1-2 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.

Result
Spain	Draw	Italy
45.44% ( 0.08)	24.57% ( 0.27)	29.99% ( -0.35)

Both teams to score 57.11% (

-1.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.43% (

-1.39)

45.57% (

1.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.1% (

-1.34)

67.9% (

1.34)

Spain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.84% (

-0.53)

20.16% (

0.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.56% (

-0.86)

52.44% (

0.86)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.53% (

-0.93)

28.47% (

0.93)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.76% (

-1.18)

64.24% (

1.18)

Score Analysis

Spain 45.44%

Italy 29.99%

Draw 24.56%

Spain	Draw	Italy
2-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.19% ( 0.39) 2-0 @ 7.36% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 4.94% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 3.93% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.1% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.88% Total : 45.44%	1-1 @ 11.54% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 5.74% ( 0.33) 3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.56%	1-2 @ 7.25% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 7.21% ( 0.24) 0-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.68% Total : 29.99%