SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Italy | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Croatia | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 4 | Albania | 3 | -2 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 76.18%. A draw had a probability of 14.8% and a win for Georgia had a probability of 9.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.84%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.91%), while for a Georgia win it was 1-2 (2.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spain | Draw | Georgia |
76.18% ( 0.51) | 14.75% ( -0.13) | 9.07% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 50.77% ( -1.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.04% ( -0.66) | 33.96% ( 0.67) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.18% ( -0.76) | 55.81% ( 0.76) |
| Spain Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.62% ( -0.05) | 7.38% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.38% ( -0.12) | 26.62% ( 0.12) |
| Georgia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.82% ( -1.26) | 45.18% ( 1.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.92% ( -1.02) | 81.07% ( 1.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spain | Draw | Georgia |
| 2-0 @ 11.32% ( 0.33) 3-0 @ 9.84% ( 0.27)2-1 @ 9% ( -0.05)1-0 @ 8.69% ( 0.28)3-1 @ 7.82% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.16)4-1 @ 5.09% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 3.34% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.14)5-1 @ 2.66% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.09)6-0 @ 1.45% ( 0.03)6-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.21% Total : 76.17% | 1-1 @ 6.91% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.58% ( -0.15)0-0 @ 3.33% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.94% Total : 14.75% | 1-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 2.65% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.05% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.68% Total : 9.07% |
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