Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 43.44%. A win for France had a probability of 30.32% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest France win was 0-1 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.
